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Commodity Trading: Sugar Futures

Historic Price Overview

During 2000, Sugar prices – as measured by the nearest to expire futures contract – have traded between 4.62 and 11.40 cents per pound. Price action in 2000 continued the advance started in 1999, following Sugars low of 4.36 cents per pound made in May 1999.

Note: Chart compliments of www.geckosoftware.com. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Support is evident on the charts from 8.00 to 8.50 cents per pound, with major support falling below this from 7.88 to 7.30 cents per pound. The 50% retracement level of the upmove started in 1999 comes in at 7.88 cent per pound. Resistance is evident on the charts from 10.00 to 13.00 cents per pound, with the 50% retracement of the move from the 1995 highs to the 1999 lows is 10.09.

The action on the monthly charts looks to be supportive of a correction in Sugar prices, as opposed to a correction, forming a possible “flag” formation – but only time will tell if this is true or not.

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Disclosure of Risk: The risk of loss in trading futures and options can be substantial; therefore, only genuine risk funds should be used. Futures and options ARE not suitable investments for all individuals, and individuals should carefully consider their financial condition in deciding whether to trade. Option traders should be aware that the exercise of a long option would result in a futures position.

SEASONAL TENDENCIES ARE A COMPOSITE OF SOME OF THE MOST CONSISTENT COMMODITY FUTURES SEASONALS THAT HAVE OCCURRED IN THE PAST 15 YEARS. THERE ARE USUALLY UNDERLYING, FUNDAMENTAL CIRCUMSTANCES THAT OCCUR ANNUALLY THAT TEND TO CAUSE THE FUTURES MARKETS TO REACT IN SIMILAR DIRECTIONAL MANNER DURING A CERTAIN CALENDAR YEAR. EVEN IF A SEASONAL TENDENCY OCCURS IN THE FUTURE, IT MAY NOT RESULT IN A PROFITABLE TRANSACTION AS FEES AND THE TIMING OF THE ENTRY AND LIQUIDATION MAY IMPACT ON THE RESULTS. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT HAS IN THE PAST, OR WILL IN THE FUTURE, ACHIEVE PROFITS USING THESE RECOMMENDATIONS. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT PRICE PATTERNS WILL RECUR IN THE FUTURE.

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL, OR IS LIKELY TO, ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM, IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES, ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS, IN GENERAL, OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.