Commodity Trading:
Orange Juice Futures
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| Supply | Demand
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Demand
/ Consumption Considerations
The
demand for Orange Juice on a large scale did not begin until after World
War II following the development of the industrial process of producing
concentrate. From the late
1940's until the mid 1960's Florida was the only major producer of Orange
Juice and the United States was the only major consumer of Orange Juice.
However, following the Florida freeze of 1962, production in Sao
Paulo began. Because Brazil
had historically been the provider of fresh oranges to Europe since the
1920's, the advent of juice production in Brazil lead to increasing
exports of Orange Juice. A
world market for it soon followed.
The
United States is still the largest consumer of Orange Juice, accounting
for half the world’s annual Orange Juice consumption.
Future demand in the United States is not expected to grow much, as
this is a relatively mature market. US
demand should vary along traditional macro economic factors, such as
income, population and consumer tastes.
European
demand is very segmented. Germany
is the largest consumer with in Europe, followed by Britain and France.
These countries too are relatively mature markets.
However, Eastern Europe and Russia have been experiencing
increasing Orange Juice consumption in recent years, a trend which should
be greatly affected by the state of their economies, since Orange Juice is
considered a luxury item in many of these locals. Any increase in income levels, should be matched by increases
in Orange Juice consumption on a relative basis.
Japan,
South Korea, and Australia are significant sources of demand for Orange
Juice. Australia is
considered an almost mature market with a relatively high per capita
consumption. Other countries
in Asia, including Hong Kong, Thailand, and Taiwan have relatively low per
capita consumption.
Like
other agricultural products, the demand for frozen concentrated Orange
Juice is affected by large macro trends such as income levels, consumer
tastes, and population growth rates. The major consuming countries of frozen concentrated Orange
Juice are the United States, England, Canada, and Europe. The growing affluence of South American and other developing
countries will also be major forces effecting the demand for oranges and
frozen concentrated orange juice.
The
Florida Citrus Association is probably the best source of information on
the demand for frozen concentrated Orange Juice.
This Association releases the statistics on the movement of frozen
concentrated Orange Juice pack from Florida to wholesalers, super- market
chains, and other manufacturers of food products.
The federal school lunch program and other federally sponsored food
programs can have a large effect on the demand for frozen concentrated
Orange Juice. US Exports of
frozen concentrated Orange Juice are another excellent source of
information on demand.
| Overview
| Supply | Demand
| Seasonal Overview | Seasonal
Charts |
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