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Commodity Trading: Lean Hog Futures 

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Supply / Production Considerations

The change from small to large Hog producers dominating the pork industry has changed the nature of the Hog supply.  Today, systems producers, who typically use large controlled-environment buildings known as "hog factories" dominate Hog production.  These facilities make handling Hogs easier by providing for more direct observation of animals, allowing greater control over the production process and protecting both the animals and the workers from heat, cold, rain, and snow.  Because of the close supervision of the production process and the complete control of the environment, swine production system facilities generally are able to produce a market weight Hog faster and cheaper since feed efficiency is better than small-scale outdoor facilities.  Feed and labor are the two largest variable costs faced by Hog producers.  So even though the "hog factories" require a larger initial investment, the cost savings over time definitely give these operations a distinct cost advantage compared to the small-scale old fashioned pen based method.

Hog Production Stages & Timetable

No matter what production system is used to raise Hogs, the timetable is typically the same.  The gestation (pregnancy) time for a sow is 114 days.  The average liter size is 9 to 10 piglets, with a practical range of 6 to 13 per liter.  Roughly 3 to 4 weeks after pigs are farrowing (birthing), the liter is weaned from their mother and moved to the nursery or grower stage.  During this developmental stage, pigs are fattened from 10 to 15 pounds up to between 40 and 60 pounds on a highly concentrated diet of grain, plant proteins, and milk products.  Once the pigs reach "growing weight" of 40 to 60 pounds, they are separated by sex.  Both barrows (MALES) and gilts (FEMALES) are fed up to nine different diets of consisting mainly of corn, barley, milo (grain sorghum), oats and sometimes wheat for dietary carbohydrates and fat, while oilseed meals (mainly soybean meal) is used as the primary source of protein used to build the leaner and more muscular Hogs of today.  This process typically takes between 38 and 42 weeks for the barrows and gilts to reach market weight of 250 pounds from their starting weights of 40 to 60 pounds.

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Commodity Trader's Almanac 2008
Scott W. Barrie

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Disclosure of Risk: The risk of loss in trading futures and options can be substantial; therefore, only genuine risk funds should be used. Futures and options ARE not suitable investments for all individuals, and individuals should carefully consider their financial condition in deciding whether to trade. Option traders should be aware that the exercise of a long option would result in a futures position.

SEASONAL TENDENCIES ARE A COMPOSITE OF SOME OF THE MOST CONSISTENT COMMODITY FUTURES SEASONALS THAT HAVE OCCURRED IN THE PAST 15 YEARS.  THERE ARE USUALLY UNDERLYING, FUNDAMENTAL CIRCUMSTANCES THAT OCCUR ANNUALLY THAT TEND TO CAUSE THE FUTURES MARKETS TO REACT IN SIMILAR DIRECTIONAL MANNER DURING A CERTAIN CALENDAR YEAR.  EVEN IF A SEASONAL TENDENCY OCCURS IN THE FUTURE, IT MAY NOT RESULT IN A PROFITABLE TRANSACTION AS FEES AND THE TIMING OF THE ENTRY AND LIQUIDATION MAY IMPACT ON THE RESULTS.  NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT HAS IN THE PAST, OR WILL IN THE FUTURE, ACHIEVE PROFITS USING THESE RECOMMENDATIONS.  NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT PRICE PATTERNS WILL RECUR IN THE FUTURE. 

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL, OR IS LIKELY TO, ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM, IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES, ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS, IN GENERAL, OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.